Will resistance come to Africa?

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Last month, South African Aids campaigners won a huge victory. Denying HIV drugs to positive mothers to prevent mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) was declared illegal. So, cause for celebration, yes?
Not if a Ugandan study of MTCT prevention, the HIVNET trial (see treatment news) correctly predicts what may happen.
Why? Drug resistance.
South Africa's activists chose, understandably, to campaign for the cheapest-possible option. Two nevirapine pills. One to mum at the onset of labour, one to the newborn child. Cost to South Africa: £5.2m a year. The next-cheapest studied option, an AZT/3TC combo, would cost nearly £8 million.
Unfortunately, the cheapest may also be the worst option. Nevirapine is a perfectly good drug if it is used in combination with others. But HIV becomes resistant to it very easily. If nevirapine is given by itself, just one dose can make you virus-resistant.
This is what happened to one in five of the mums in the HIVNET trial. What are they supposed to do next time they conceive?
Worse, one in ten of the babies still became HIV positive - and nevirapine-resistant.

That means, if nevirapine becomes available countrywide, that 6,000 babies a year born to positive mums in South Africa could end up drug-resistant.